GIGADEVICE

03986

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

57%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

3.5%

Official one-lot hit rate?

2.0%

Public offer lots

28,916 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.035 lots	0.020 lots	Relative deviation 76.4% Absolute diff. 0.015 lots	0m	0m
A tail	300	Pool A	0.283 lots	0.660 lots	Relative deviation 57.1% Absolute diff. 0.377 lots	4.9m	0m
B head	400	Pool B	0.758 lots	0.800 lots	Relative deviation 5.3% Absolute diff. 0.042 lots	6.5m	0m
Top	14,458	Pool B	4.740 lots	6.000 lots	Relative deviation 21.0% Absolute diff. 1.261 lots	234.2m	0.1m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.