LAIFUAL

03952

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

57%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

4.1%

Official one-lot hit rate?

5.0%

Public offer lots

26,880 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.041 lots	0.050 lots	Relative deviation 17.4% Absolute diff. 0.009 lots	0m	0m
A tail	500	Pool A	0.340 lots	0.189 lots	Relative deviation 80.1% Absolute diff. 0.151 lots	4.3m	0m
B head	600	Pool B	0.553 lots	0.600 lots	Relative deviation 7.8% Absolute diff. 0.047 lots	5.1m	0m
Top	3,360	Pool B	1.286 lots	1.000 lots	Relative deviation 28.6% Absolute diff. 0.286 lots	28.7m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.