HASHKEY HLDGS

03887

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Flat

Joint probability

58%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

6.4%

Official one-lot hit rate?

10.0%

Public offer lots

60,143 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.064 lots	0.100 lots	Relative deviation 35.7% Absolute diff. 0.036 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,750	Pool A	1.712 lots	2.171 lots	Relative deviation 21.2% Absolute diff. 0.459 lots	4.7m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	2.736 lots	5.000 lots	Relative deviation 45.3% Absolute diff. 2.264 lots	5.3m	0m
Top	30,071	Pool B	40.858 lots	30.000 lots	Relative deviation 36.2% Absolute diff. 10.858 lots	80.3m	0.1m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.