CIDI

03881

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

52%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

29.9%

Official one-lot hit rate?

50.0%

Public offer lots

54,078 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.299 lots	0.500 lots	Relative deviation 40.2% Absolute diff. 0.201 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	12.700 lots	30.439 lots	Relative deviation 58.3% Absolute diff. 17.739 lots	2.6m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	211.311 lots	180.000 lots	Relative deviation 17.4% Absolute diff. 31.311 lots	5.3m	0.6m
Top	13,520	Pool B	538.803 lots	1,162.000 lots	Relative deviation 53.6% Absolute diff. 623.197 lots	35.6m	1.4m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.