JIAXIN INTL RES

03858

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

54%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

2.9%

Official one-lot hit rate?

1.0%

Public offer lots

27,453 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.029 lots	0.010 lots	Relative deviation 186.0% Absolute diff. 0.019 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	0.301 lots	0.700 lots	Relative deviation 57.1% Absolute diff. 0.400 lots	4.4m	0m
B head	1,250	Pool B	0.502 lots	0.627 lots	Relative deviation 20.0% Absolute diff. 0.125 lots	5.5m	0m
Top	13,726	Pool B	2.446 lots	3.000 lots	Relative deviation 18.5% Absolute diff. 0.554 lots	60m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.