INSILICO

03696

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Proportional + Steep

Joint probability

48%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

0.2%

Official one-lot hit rate?

1.0%

Public offer lots

18,939 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.002 lots	0.010 lots	Relative deviation 84.0% Absolute diff. 0.008 lots	0m	0m
A tail	400	Pool A	0.376 lots	0.304 lots	Relative deviation 23.8% Absolute diff. 0.072 lots	4.8m	0m
B head	600	Pool B	0.299 lots	0.330 lots	Relative deviation 9.4% Absolute diff. 0.031 lots	7.2m	0m
Top	9,469	Pool B	1.262 lots	3.305 lots	Relative deviation 61.8% Absolute diff. 2.043 lots	113.9m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.