SG MICRO

03661

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

64%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

8.1%

Official one-lot hit rate?

10.0%

Public offer lots

54,001 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.081 lots	0.100 lots	Relative deviation 19.0% Absolute diff. 0.019 lots	0m	0m
A tail	500	Pool A	1.184 lots	0.658 lots	Relative deviation 80.0% Absolute diff. 0.526 lots	4.3m	0m
B head	600	Pool B	3.744 lots	2.880 lots	Relative deviation 30.0% Absolute diff. 0.864 lots	5.1m	0m
Top	27,001	Pool B	47.433 lots	21.000 lots	Relative deviation 125.9% Absolute diff. 26.433 lots	230m	0.4m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.