JINXUN RESOURCE

03636

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

63%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

8.9%

Official one-lot hit rate?

7.0%

Public offer lots

18,382 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.089 lots	0.070 lots	Relative deviation 26.7% Absolute diff. 0.019 lots	0m	0m
A tail	500	Pool A	1.450 lots	2.151 lots	Relative deviation 32.6% Absolute diff. 0.701 lots	3m	0m
B head	1,000	Pool B	6.339 lots	8.000 lots	Relative deviation 20.8% Absolute diff. 1.661 lots	6m	0m
Top	9,191	Pool B	31.455 lots	35.000 lots	Relative deviation 10.1% Absolute diff. 3.545 lots	55.1m	0.2m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.