FOURSEMI

03625

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

57%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

8.2%

Official one-lot hit rate?

5.0%

Public offer lots

24,000 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.082 lots	0.050 lots	Relative deviation 64.6% Absolute diff. 0.032 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,250	Pool A	1.097 lots	1.434 lots	Relative deviation 23.5% Absolute diff. 0.337 lots	5m	0m
B head	1,500	Pool B	1.823 lots	1.545 lots	Relative deviation 18.0% Absolute diff. 0.279 lots	6m	0m
Top	3,000	Pool B	2.516 lots	2.244 lots	Relative deviation 12.1% Absolute diff. 0.272 lots	12m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.