CREALITY

03388

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

55%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

2.8%

Official one-lot hit rate?

3.0%

Public offer lots

48,952 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.028 lots	0.030 lots	Relative deviation 8.4% Absolute diff. 0.003 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	0.227 lots	0.325 lots	Relative deviation 30.0% Absolute diff. 0.098 lots	2.8m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	0.422 lots	0.400 lots	Relative deviation 5.5% Absolute diff. 0.022 lots	5.6m	0m
Top	24,476	Pool B	2.204 lots	3.060 lots	Relative deviation 28.0% Absolute diff. 0.857 lots	69m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.