FS.COM

03355

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

58%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

3.6%

Official one-lot hit rate?

1.0%

Public offer lots

40,000 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.036 lots	0.010 lots	Relative deviation 263.8% Absolute diff. 0.026 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	0.320 lots	0.740 lots	Relative deviation 56.7% Absolute diff. 0.419 lots	4.2m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	0.970 lots	1.400 lots	Relative deviation 30.7% Absolute diff. 0.430 lots	8.3m	0m
Top	20,000	Pool B	3.147 lots	3.670 lots	Relative deviation 14.3% Absolute diff. 0.524 lots	83.2m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.