XUNCE

03317

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Flat

Joint probability

61%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

27.8%

Official one-lot hit rate?

12.8%

Public offer lots

22,500 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.278 lots	0.128 lots	Relative deviation 117.3% Absolute diff. 0.150 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	18.979 lots	163.824 lots	Relative deviation 88.4% Absolute diff. 144.845 lots	4.8m	0.1m
B head	1,200	Pool B	123.568 lots	196.333 lots	Relative deviation 37.1% Absolute diff. 72.766 lots	5.8m	0.6m
Top	11,250	Pool B	1,132.556 lots	1,834.000 lots	Relative deviation 38.2% Absolute diff. 701.444 lots	54m	5.4m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.