HUAQIN

03296

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

57%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

4.3%

Official one-lot hit rate?

12.0%

Public offer lots

58,548 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.043 lots	0.120 lots	Relative deviation 64.0% Absolute diff. 0.077 lots	0m	0m
A tail	600	Pool A	0.473 lots	0.680 lots	Relative deviation 30.4% Absolute diff. 0.207 lots	4.7m	0m
B head	700	Pool B	1.106 lots	1.260 lots	Relative deviation 12.3% Absolute diff. 0.155 lots	5.4m	0m
Top	29,274	Pool B	13.336 lots	14.000 lots	Relative deviation 4.7% Absolute diff. 0.665 lots	227.5m	0.1m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.