MEIG

03268

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

63%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

11.1%

Official one-lot hit rate?

5.0%

Public offer lots

40,250 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.111 lots	0.050 lots	Relative deviation 121.9% Absolute diff. 0.061 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	2.128 lots	3.000 lots	Relative deviation 29.1% Absolute diff. 0.872 lots	2.9m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	10.700 lots	10.124 lots	Relative deviation 5.7% Absolute diff. 0.576 lots	5.8m	0m
Top	17,500	Pool B	50.995 lots	70.000 lots	Relative deviation 27.1% Absolute diff. 19.005 lots	50.5m	0.1m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.