HANS CNC

03200

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

57%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

4.5%

Official one-lot hit rate?

10.0%

Public offer lots

50,451 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.045 lots	0.100 lots	Relative deviation 55.3% Absolute diff. 0.055 lots	0m	0m
A tail	500	Pool A	0.582 lots	0.476 lots	Relative deviation 22.1% Absolute diff. 0.105 lots	4.8m	0m
B head	600	Pool B	1.464 lots	1.500 lots	Relative deviation 2.4% Absolute diff. 0.036 lots	5.7m	0m
Top	25,226	Pool B	9.885 lots	6.786 lots	Relative deviation 45.7% Absolute diff. 3.100 lots	241.7m	0.1m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.