PATEO

02889

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

56%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

7.7%

Official one-lot hit rate?

0.3%

Public offer lots

52,185 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.077 lots	0.003 lots	Relative deviation 747.6% Absolute diff. 0.075 lots	0m	0m
A tail	2,000	Pool A	1.392 lots	4.999 lots	Relative deviation 72.2% Absolute diff. 3.607 lots	4.1m	0m
B head	2,500	Pool B	3.592 lots	4.100 lots	Relative deviation 12.4% Absolute diff. 0.508 lots	5.1m	0m
Top	26,092	Pool B	16.707 lots	38.365 lots	Relative deviation 56.5% Absolute diff. 21.658 lots	53.3m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.