PATEO

02889

Numbers default to the most likely allotment pattern. Clicking another pattern only compares the table; extra-watch notes are historical comparisons and do not change the main reference.

Data updated · Sep 22, 2026, 14:40 HKT

Model basis: Strong basis

How to read this page

Start with one-lot, A-tail and B-head. The table below defaults to the most likely pattern.
The three cards are more likely allotment patterns, not a ranking contest. Clicking another card only compares how the numbers change; it does not replace the main reference.
An extra-watch note names one pattern to compare first. Click it to see how the numbers change. It is not a new main reference and not trading advice.

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

5.7%

Average lots allotted when applying for 1 lot. Closer to 100% means a one-lot application is more likely to get stock.

Official one-lot hit rate?

0.3%

Predicted A-tail allotted?

1.424 lots

Official A-tail allotted

4.999 lots

Predicted B-head allotted?

3.612 lots

Official B-head allotted

4.100 lots

Largest Pool A tier, usually the full small-application size. Smallest Pool B tier, just after entering the large-application pool.

Public offer lots

52,185 lots

More likely allotment patterns

“Most likely” is the default method for the current numbers. The other cards are next-likely patterns for comparison. Clicking them does not replace the main reference.

Click to compare the table below. The table changes; the main reference does not.

Average allotment by tier

Key tiers are 1 lot, A-tail, B-head and top hammer. The core column is average allotted lots; the official column appears after allotment is published.

Table scenario

Larger Pool A applications get less extra allotment；Pool B allotment declines gradually with size

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount	Expected allotment value
1 lot	1	Pool A	5.7%	0.3%	Relative deviation 543.7% Absolute diff. 5.4%	0m	0m
A tail	2,000	Pool A	1.424 lots	4.999 lots	Relative deviation 71.5% Absolute diff. 3.575 lots	4.1m	0m
B head	2,500	Pool B	3.612 lots	4.100 lots	Relative deviation 11.9% Absolute diff. 0.488 lots	5.1m	0m
Top hammer	26,092	Pool B	16.801 lots	38.365 lots	Relative deviation 56.2% Absolute diff. 21.564 lots	53.3m	0m

Win-rate forecasts are informational research output. Likelihood is the published scenario view. Extra-watch notes use forward-only historical samples, do not change the main-reference numbers, are not official allotment certainty, and are not subscription advice.