QIYUNSHAN FOOD

02797

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

60%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

2.9%

Official one-lot hit rate?

0.1%

Public offer lots

5,000 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.030 lots	0.001 lots	Relative deviation 286.0% Absolute diff. 0.029 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	0.399 lots	0.900 lots	Relative deviation 55.7% Absolute diff. 0.501 lots	4m	0m
B head	1,500	Pool B	0.797 lots	0.664 lots	Relative deviation 20.0% Absolute diff. 0.133 lots	6m	0m
Top	2,500	Pool B	1.017 lots	1.100 lots	Relative deviation 7.5% Absolute diff. 0.083 lots	10m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.