CHUANGXIN IND

02788

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Proportional + Flat

Joint probability

59%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

0.4%

Official one-lot hit rate?

10.0%

Public offer lots

100,000 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.004 lots	0.100 lots	Relative deviation 95.7% Absolute diff. 0.096 lots	0m	0m
A tail	800	Pool A	2.024 lots	2.480 lots	Relative deviation 18.4% Absolute diff. 0.456 lots	4.4m	0m
B head	1,000	Pool B	1.237 lots	3.000 lots	Relative deviation 58.8% Absolute diff. 1.764 lots	5.5m	0m
Top	50,000	Pool B	61.343 lots	20.000 lots	Relative deviation 206.7% Absolute diff. 41.343 lots	274.8m	0.3m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.