GON TECHNOLOGY

02768

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

57%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

2.4%

Official one-lot hit rate?

2.0%

Public offer lots

15,000 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.024 lots	0.020 lots	Relative deviation 18.0% Absolute diff. 0.004 lots	0m	0m
A tail	500	Pool A	0.189 lots	0.271 lots	Relative deviation 30.2% Absolute diff. 0.082 lots	3.6m	0m
B head	750	Pool B	0.253 lots	0.333 lots	Relative deviation 24.2% Absolute diff. 0.081 lots	5.4m	0m
Top	7,500	Pool B	1.315 lots	1.344 lots	Relative deviation 2.2% Absolute diff. 0.029 lots	54m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.