EPIWORLD

02726

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Flat

Joint probability

59%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

22.6%

Official one-lot hit rate?

20.0%

Public offer lots

42,984 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.226 lots	0.200 lots	Relative deviation 12.8% Absolute diff. 0.026 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	4.741 lots	13.000 lots	Relative deviation 63.5% Absolute diff. 8.259 lots	3.8m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	31.003 lots	45.000 lots	Relative deviation 31.1% Absolute diff. 13.997 lots	7.6m	0.1m
Top	21,492	Pool B	314.330 lots	236.000 lots	Relative deviation 33.2% Absolute diff. 78.330 lots	81.9m	1.2m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.