RIDGE OUTDOOR

02720

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

60%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

1.5%

Official one-lot hit rate?

1.0%

Public offer lots

5,641 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.015 lots	0.010 lots	Relative deviation 51.9% Absolute diff. 0.005 lots	0m	0m
A tail	800	Pool A	0.153 lots	0.165 lots	Relative deviation 7.4% Absolute diff. 0.012 lots	4.9m	0m
B head	1,000	Pool B	0.208 lots	0.200 lots	Relative deviation 4.0% Absolute diff. 0.008 lots	6.1m	0m
Top	2,820	Pool B	0.357 lots	0.467 lots	Relative deviation 23.4% Absolute diff. 0.109 lots	17.3m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.