MININGLAMP-W

02718

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

53%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

2.1%

Official one-lot hit rate?

1.0%

Public offer lots

18,048 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.021 lots	0.010 lots	Relative deviation 110.9% Absolute diff. 0.011 lots	0m	0m
A tail	750	Pool A	0.135 lots	0.166 lots	Relative deviation 18.5% Absolute diff. 0.031 lots	4.2m	0m
B head	1,000	Pool B	0.175 lots	0.200 lots	Relative deviation 12.6% Absolute diff. 0.025 lots	5.6m	0m
Top	9,024	Pool B	0.852 lots	0.967 lots	Relative deviation 11.9% Absolute diff. 0.115 lots	50.9m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.