ESTUN

02715

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Proportional + Flat

Joint probability

62%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

12.6%

Official one-lot hit rate?

5.0%

Public offer lots

48,390 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.126 lots	0.050 lots	Relative deviation 153.0% Absolute diff. 0.076 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,500	Pool A	55.233 lots	81.394 lots	Relative deviation 32.1% Absolute diff. 26.162 lots	4.6m	0.2m
B head	2,000	Pool B	73.764 lots	108.500 lots	Relative deviation 32.0% Absolute diff. 34.736 lots	6.1m	0.2m
Top	24,195	Pool B	855.975 lots	1,313.000 lots	Relative deviation 34.8% Absolute diff. 457.025 lots	74.3m	2.6m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.