ESTUN

02715

Numbers default to the most likely allotment pattern. Clicking another pattern only compares the table; extra-watch notes are historical comparisons and do not change the main reference.

Model basis: Strong basis

How to read this page

Start with one-lot, A-tail and B-head. The table below defaults to the most likely pattern.
The three cards are more likely allotment patterns, not a ranking contest. Clicking another card only compares how the numbers change; it does not replace the main reference.
An extra-watch note names one pattern to compare first. Click it to see how the numbers change. It is not a new main reference and not trading advice.

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

15.4%

Average lots allotted when applying for 1 lot. Closer to 100% means a one-lot application is more likely to get stock.

Official one-lot hit rate?

5.0%

A-tail avg. allotted?

56.391 lots

B-head avg. allotted?

75.104 lots

Largest Pool A tier, usually the full small-application size. Smallest Pool B tier, just after entering the large-application pool.

Public offer lots

48,390 lots

More likely allotment patterns

“Most likely” is the default method for the current numbers. The other cards are next-likely patterns for comparison. Clicking them does not replace the main reference.

Click to compare the table below. The table changes; the main reference does not.

Average allotment by tier

Key tiers are 1 lot, A-tail, B-head and top hammer. The core column is average allotted lots; the official column appears after allotment is published.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount	Expected allotment value
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.154 lots	0.050 lots	Relative deviation 208.5% Absolute diff. 0.104 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,500	Pool A	56.391 lots	81.394 lots	Relative deviation 30.7% Absolute diff. 25.003 lots	4.6m	0.2m
B head	2,000	Pool B	75.104 lots	108.500 lots	Relative deviation 30.8% Absolute diff. 33.396 lots	6.1m	0.2m
Top hammer	24,195	Pool B	871.517 lots	1,313.000 lots	Relative deviation 33.6% Absolute diff. 441.483 lots	74.3m	2.7m

Win-rate forecasts are informational research output. Likelihood is the published scenario view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal. Extra-watch notes use forward-only historical samples, do not change the main-reference numbers, are not official allotment certainty, and are not subscription advice.