MUYUAN

02714

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Proportional + Flat

Joint probability

68%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

37.7%

Official one-lot hit rate?

100.0%

Public offer lots

273,951 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.377 lots	1.000 lots	Relative deviation 62.3% Absolute diff. 0.623 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	109.600 lots	279.333 lots	Relative deviation 60.8% Absolute diff. 169.733 lots	3.9m	0.4m
B head	2,000	Pool B	213.346 lots	300.000 lots	Relative deviation 28.9% Absolute diff. 86.655 lots	7.8m	0.8m
Top	136,976	Pool B	14,167.658 lots	13,227.000 lots	Relative deviation 7.1% Absolute diff. 940.658 lots	534.2m	55.3m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.