HAIZHI TECH GP

02706

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

56%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

1.3%

Official one-lot hit rate?

0.1%

Public offer lots

14,015 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.013 lots	0.001 lots	Relative deviation 118.9% Absolute diff. 0.012 lots	0m	0m
A tail	500	Pool A	0.102 lots	0.298 lots	Relative deviation 65.9% Absolute diff. 0.196 lots	2.7m	0m
B head	1,000	Pool B	0.157 lots	0.118 lots	Relative deviation 32.8% Absolute diff. 0.039 lots	5.4m	0m
Top	7,008	Pool B	0.639 lots	0.829 lots	Relative deviation 23.0% Absolute diff. 0.190 lots	37.9m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.