NSING TECH

02701

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Flat

Joint probability

59%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

17.2%

Official one-lot hit rate?

30.0%

Public offer lots

47,500 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.172 lots	0.300 lots	Relative deviation 42.8% Absolute diff. 0.128 lots	0m	0m
A tail	2,000	Pool A	4.878 lots	1.507 lots	Relative deviation 223.8% Absolute diff. 3.372 lots	4.3m	0m
B head	2,500	Pool B	19.496 lots	15.444 lots	Relative deviation 26.2% Absolute diff. 4.052 lots	5.4m	0m
Top	23,750	Pool B	178.378 lots	115.000 lots	Relative deviation 55.1% Absolute diff. 63.378 lots	51.3m	0.4m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.