SOFTCARE

02698

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

53%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

2.8%

Official one-lot hit rate?

1.0%

Public offer lots

45,442 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.028 lots	0.010 lots	Relative deviation 175.9% Absolute diff. 0.018 lots	0m	0m
A tail	500	Pool A	0.206 lots	0.570 lots	Relative deviation 63.9% Absolute diff. 0.364 lots	2.6m	0m
B head	1,000	Pool B	0.555 lots	0.600 lots	Relative deviation 7.5% Absolute diff. 0.045 lots	5.2m	0m
Top	22,721	Pool B	2.736 lots	3.283 lots	Relative deviation 16.7% Absolute diff. 0.547 lots	119.1m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.