TH MEDICAL-B

02697

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

61%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

4.6%

Official one-lot hit rate?

2.0%

Public offer lots

17,824 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.046 lots	0.020 lots	Relative deviation 128.4% Absolute diff. 0.026 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,500	Pool A	0.500 lots	0.567 lots	Relative deviation 11.9% Absolute diff. 0.067 lots	3.8m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	1.424 lots	1.000 lots	Relative deviation 42.4% Absolute diff. 0.424 lots	5m	0m
Top	8,912	Pool B	3.792 lots	2.435 lots	Relative deviation 55.7% Absolute diff. 1.357 lots	22.5m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.