TH MEDICAL-B
02697Numbers default to the most likely allotment pattern. Clicking another pattern only compares the table; extra-watch notes are historical comparisons and do not change the main reference.
- Start with one-lot, A-tail and B-head. The table below defaults to the most likely pattern.
- The three cards are more likely allotment patterns, not a ranking contest. Clicking another card only compares how the numbers change; it does not replace the main reference.
- An extra-watch note names one pattern to compare first. Click it to see how the numbers change. It is not a new main reference and not trading advice.
Average lots allotted when applying for 1 lot. Closer to 100% means a one-lot application is more likely to get stock.
Largest Pool A tier, usually the full small-application size. Smallest Pool B tier, just after entering the large-application pool.
More likely allotment patterns
“Most likely” is the default method for the current numbers. The other cards are next-likely patterns for comparison. Clicking them does not replace the main reference.
Click to compare the table below. The table changes; the main reference does not.
Average allotment by tier
| Type | Lots | Pool | Predicted avg. allotted? | Official avg. allotted | Deviation | Application amount | Expected allotment value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 lot | 1 | Pool A | 0.036 lots | 0.020 lots | Relative deviation 79.9% Absolute diff. 0.016 lots | 0m | 0m |
A tail | 1,500 | Pool A | 0.520 lots | 0.567 lots | Relative deviation 8.4% Absolute diff. 0.047 lots | 3.8m | 0m |
B head | 2,000 | Pool B | 1.403 lots | 1.000 lots | Relative deviation 40.3% Absolute diff. 0.403 lots | 5m | 0m |
Top hammer | 8,912 | Pool B | 3.736 lots | 2.435 lots | Relative deviation 53.4% Absolute diff. 1.301 lots | 22.5m | 0m |
Win-rate forecasts are informational research output. Likelihood is the published scenario view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal. Extra-watch notes use forward-only historical samples, do not change the main-reference numbers, are not official allotment certainty, and are not subscription advice.