IMPRESSION DHP

02695

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

56%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

2.1%

Official one-lot hit rate?

0.8%

Public offer lots

3,610 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.021 lots	0.008 lots	Relative deviation 126.8% Absolute diff. 0.013 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,200	Pool A	0.267 lots	0.108 lots	Relative deviation 146.6% Absolute diff. 0.158 lots	4.3m	0m
B head	1,400	Pool B	0.256 lots	0.322 lots	Relative deviation 20.6% Absolute diff. 0.066 lots	5m	0m
Top	1,805	Pool B	0.307 lots	0.399 lots	Relative deviation 23.0% Absolute diff. 0.092 lots	6.5m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.