JINYAN KAOLIN

02693

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Very steep

Joint probability

51%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

1.2%

Official one-lot hit rate?

Public offer lots

4,860 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.012 lots	-	-	0m	0m
A tail	1,200	Pool A	0.121 lots	-	-	4.4m	0m
B head	1,400	Pool B	0.146 lots	-	-	5.1m	0m
Top	2,430	Pool B	0.165 lots	-	-	8.9m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.