NANHUA FUTURES

02691

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Proportional + Flat

Joint probability

62%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

67.0%

Official one-lot hit rate?

74.6%

Public offer lots

21,532 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.670 lots	0.746 lots	Relative deviation 10.2% Absolute diff. 0.076 lots	0m	0m
A tail	800	Pool A	215.758 lots	800.000 lots	Relative deviation 73.0% Absolute diff. 584.242 lots	4.8m	1.3m
B head	1,000	Pool B	355.722 lots	1,000.000 lots	Relative deviation 64.4% Absolute diff. 644.278 lots	6m	2.1m
Top	1,200	Pool B	426.082 lots	-	-	7.2m	2.6m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.