QUANTGROUP

02685

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Very steep

Joint probability

51%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

1.1%

Official one-lot hit rate?

0.6%

Public offer lots

2,669 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.011 lots	0.006 lots	Relative deviation 51.2% Absolute diff. 0.005 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	0.093 lots	0.051 lots	Relative deviation 84.0% Absolute diff. 0.043 lots	4.9m	0m
B head	1,200	Pool B	0.082 lots	0.108 lots	Relative deviation 23.8% Absolute diff. 0.026 lots	5.9m	0m
Top	1,335	Pool B	0.084 lots	0.108 lots	Relative deviation 22.3% Absolute diff. 0.024 lots	6.5m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.