DISTINCT HEALTH

02677

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Very steep

Joint probability

54%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

2.4%

Official one-lot hit rate?

1.0%

Public offer lots

9,500 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.024 lots	0.010 lots	Relative deviation 137.6% Absolute diff. 0.014 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,600	Pool A	0.342 lots	0.640 lots	Relative deviation 46.5% Absolute diff. 0.298 lots	4.8m	0m
B head	1,800	Pool B	0.499 lots	0.644 lots	Relative deviation 22.6% Absolute diff. 0.145 lots	5.4m	0m
Top	4,750	Pool B	0.609 lots	0.668 lots	Relative deviation 8.8% Absolute diff. 0.059 lots	14.2m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.