NOVOSENSE

02676

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Proportional + Flat

Joint probability

61%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

11.5%

Official one-lot hit rate?

4.3%

Public offer lots

19,068 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.115 lots	0.043 lots	Relative deviation 166.3% Absolute diff. 0.072 lots	0m	0m
A tail	400	Pool A	15.096 lots	15.980 lots	Relative deviation 5.5% Absolute diff. 0.884 lots	4.6m	0.2m
B head	500	Pool B	15.520 lots	19.257 lots	Relative deviation 19.4% Absolute diff. 3.737 lots	5.8m	0.2m
Top	9,534	Pool B	281.710 lots	-	-	110.6m	3.3m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.