USAS BUILDING

02671

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

66%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

9.8%

Official one-lot hit rate?

0.7%

Public offer lots

8,200 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.099 lots	0.007 lots	Relative deviation 910.4% Absolute diff. 0.091 lots	0m	0m
A tail	2,300	Pool A	3.100 lots	18.769 lots	Relative deviation 83.5% Absolute diff. 15.669 lots	4.9m	0m
B head	2,800	Pool B	11.246 lots	22.923 lots	Relative deviation 50.9% Absolute diff. 11.677 lots	6m	0m
Top	4,100	Pool B	14.811 lots	33.500 lots	Relative deviation 55.8% Absolute diff. 18.689 lots	8.7m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.