TONGRENTANGCARE

02667

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

56%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

8.2%

Official one-lot hit rate?

8.0%

Public offer lots

21,630 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.082 lots	0.080 lots	Relative deviation 2.4% Absolute diff. 0.002 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,600	Pool A	2.018 lots	2.013 lots	Relative deviation 0.2% Absolute diff. 0.005 lots	4.4m	0m
B head	1,800	Pool B	6.187 lots	8.000 lots	Relative deviation 22.7% Absolute diff. 1.813 lots	5m	0m
Top	10,815	Pool B	14.891 lots	20.000 lots	Relative deviation 25.5% Absolute diff. 5.109 lots	29.7m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.