QINGSONG HEALTH

02661

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

60%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

2.6%

Official one-lot hit rate?

6.0%

Public offer lots

13,270 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.026 lots	0.060 lots	Relative deviation 56.5% Absolute diff. 0.034 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	0.327 lots	0.069 lots	Relative deviation 376.0% Absolute diff. 0.258 lots	4.5m	0m
B head	1,250	Pool B	0.645 lots	1.156 lots	Relative deviation 44.2% Absolute diff. 0.511 lots	5.7m	0m
Top	6,635	Pool B	1.542 lots	1.214 lots	Relative deviation 27.0% Absolute diff. 0.328 lots	30.1m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.