TIANYU SEMI

02658

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Flat

Joint probability

60%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

22.3%

Official one-lot hit rate?

10.0%

Public offer lots

60,141 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.223 lots	0.100 lots	Relative deviation 122.8% Absolute diff. 0.123 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,600	Pool A	4.984 lots	15.185 lots	Relative deviation 67.2% Absolute diff. 10.201 lots	4.6m	0m
B head	1,800	Pool B	19.121 lots	28.803 lots	Relative deviation 33.6% Absolute diff. 9.682 lots	5.2m	0.1m
Top	30,070	Pool B	317.013 lots	381.000 lots	Relative deviation 16.8% Absolute diff. 63.987 lots	87.2m	0.9m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.