FOREST CABIN

02657

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

58%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

3.7%

Official one-lot hit rate?

2.0%

Public offer lots

27,932 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.037 lots	0.020 lots	Relative deviation 85.9% Absolute diff. 0.017 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,200	Pool A	0.405 lots	0.659 lots	Relative deviation 38.6% Absolute diff. 0.255 lots	4.7m	0m
B head	1,400	Pool B	0.765 lots	1.260 lots	Relative deviation 39.3% Absolute diff. 0.495 lots	5.4m	0m
Top	13,966	Pool B	2.554 lots	2.280 lots	Relative deviation 12.0% Absolute diff. 0.274 lots	54.3m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.