160 HEALTH

02656

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

57%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

5.3%

Official one-lot hit rate?

8.0%

Public offer lots

13,459 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.053 lots	0.080 lots	Relative deviation 34.1% Absolute diff. 0.027 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,600	Pool A	0.979 lots	2.000 lots	Relative deviation 51.0% Absolute diff. 1.021 lots	4.8m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	1.979 lots	2.696 lots	Relative deviation 26.6% Absolute diff. 0.717 lots	5.9m	0m
Top	6,729	Pool B	3.537 lots	6.000 lots	Relative deviation 41.1% Absolute diff. 2.463 lots	20m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.