GUOXIA TECH

02655

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

54%

Warning status

1 active

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

3.8%

Official one-lot hit rate?

10.0%

Public offer lots

38,930 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.038 lots	0.100 lots	Relative deviation 62.0% Absolute diff. 0.062 lots	0m	0m
A tail	2,000	Pool A	0.583 lots	0.129 lots	Relative deviation 351.0% Absolute diff. 0.454 lots	4m	0m
B head	2,500	Pool B	0.906 lots	1.731 lots	Relative deviation 47.6% Absolute diff. 0.825 lots	5m	0m
Top	16,926	Pool B	3.539 lots	1.758 lots	Relative deviation 101.3% Absolute diff. 1.781 lots	34m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.