ALSCO POOLING

02649

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

57%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

1.4%

Official one-lot hit rate?

0.0%

Public offer lots

10,170 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.014 lots	0.000 lots	Relative deviation 135.3% Absolute diff. 0.014 lots	0m	0m
A tail	900	Pool A	0.150 lots	0.114 lots	Relative deviation 31.7% Absolute diff. 0.036 lots	2m	0m
B head	1,000	Pool B	0.123 lots	0.125 lots	Relative deviation 1.8% Absolute diff. 0.002 lots	2.2m	0m
Top	2,034	Pool B	0.205 lots	0.256 lots	Relative deviation 19.8% Absolute diff. 0.051 lots	4.5m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.