NUOBIKAN

02635

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

58%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

6.8%

Official one-lot hit rate?

3.0%

Public offer lots

7,574 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.068 lots	0.030 lots	Relative deviation 125.7% Absolute diff. 0.038 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,200	Pool A	1.877 lots	6.950 lots	Relative deviation 73.0% Absolute diff. 5.073 lots	4.8m	0m
B head	1,400	Pool B	4.817 lots	7.870 lots	Relative deviation 38.8% Absolute diff. 3.052 lots	5.6m	0m
Top	3,787	Pool B	8.100 lots	17.527 lots	Relative deviation 53.8% Absolute diff. 9.427 lots	15.1m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.