NEW VISION CO

02632

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Flat

Joint probability

60%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

24.7%

Official one-lot hit rate?

30.0%

Public offer lots

32,453 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.247 lots	0.300 lots	Relative deviation 17.6% Absolute diff. 0.053 lots	0m	0m
A tail	2,000	Pool A	7.078 lots	3.000 lots	Relative deviation 135.9% Absolute diff. 4.078 lots	4.4m	0m
B head	4,000	Pool B	60.809 lots	72.043 lots	Relative deviation 15.6% Absolute diff. 11.235 lots	8.8m	0.1m
Top	16,226	Pool B	240.969 lots	276.000 lots	Relative deviation 12.7% Absolute diff. 35.031 lots	35.9m	0.5m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.