SICC

02631

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Flat

Joint probability

58%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

9.3%

Official one-lot hit rate?

30.0%

Public offer lots

167,104 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.093 lots	0.300 lots	Relative deviation 69.1% Absolute diff. 0.207 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	1.631 lots	1.300 lots	Relative deviation 25.5% Absolute diff. 0.331 lots	4.3m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	2.560 lots	4.883 lots	Relative deviation 47.6% Absolute diff. 2.323 lots	8.6m	0m
Top	11,936	Pool B	15.210 lots	17.000 lots	Relative deviation 10.5% Absolute diff. 1.790 lots	51.1m	0.1m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.