SICC

02631

Numbers default to the most likely allotment pattern. Clicking another pattern only compares the table; extra-watch notes are historical comparisons and do not change the main reference.

Model basis: Strong basis

How to read this page

Start with one-lot, A-tail and B-head. The table below defaults to the most likely pattern.
The three cards are more likely allotment patterns, not a ranking contest. Clicking another card only compares how the numbers change; it does not replace the main reference.
An extra-watch note names one pattern to compare first. Click it to see how the numbers change. It is not a new main reference and not trading advice.

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

9.5%

Average lots allotted when applying for 1 lot. Closer to 100% means a one-lot application is more likely to get stock.

Official one-lot hit rate?

30.0%

A-tail avg. allotted?

1.624 lots

B-head avg. allotted?

2.548 lots

Largest Pool A tier, usually the full small-application size. Smallest Pool B tier, just after entering the large-application pool.

Public offer lots

167,104 lots

More likely allotment patterns

“Most likely” is the default method for the current numbers. The other cards are next-likely patterns for comparison. Clicking them does not replace the main reference.

Click to compare the table below. The table changes; the main reference does not.

Average allotment by tier

Key tiers are 1 lot, A-tail, B-head and top hammer. The core column is average allotted lots; the official column appears after allotment is published.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount	Expected allotment value
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.095 lots	0.300 lots	Relative deviation 68.3% Absolute diff. 0.205 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	1.624 lots	1.300 lots	Relative deviation 24.9% Absolute diff. 0.324 lots	4.3m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	2.548 lots	4.883 lots	Relative deviation 47.8% Absolute diff. 2.335 lots	8.6m	0m
Top hammer	11,936	Pool B	15.206 lots	17.000 lots	Relative deviation 10.6% Absolute diff. 1.794 lots	51.1m	0.1m

Win-rate forecasts are informational research output. Likelihood is the published scenario view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal. Extra-watch notes use forward-only historical samples, do not change the main-reference numbers, are not official allotment certainty, and are not subscription advice.