VIGONVITA-B

02630

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Very steep

Joint probability

51%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

1.3%

Official one-lot hit rate?

1.7%

Public offer lots

8,798 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.013 lots	0.017 lots	Relative deviation 23.0% Absolute diff. 0.004 lots	0m	0m
A tail	700	Pool A	0.113 lots	0.035 lots	Relative deviation 219.0% Absolute diff. 0.078 lots	4.7m	0m
B head	800	Pool B	0.146 lots	0.207 lots	Relative deviation 29.2% Absolute diff. 0.060 lots	5.3m	0m
Top	4,399	Pool B	0.209 lots	0.220 lots	Relative deviation 5.0% Absolute diff. 0.011 lots	29.4m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.