GENFLEET-B

02595

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

54%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

2.7%

Official one-lot hit rate?

0.1%

Public offer lots

44,620 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.027 lots	0.001 lots	Relative deviation 262.9% Absolute diff. 0.026 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	0.259 lots	0.822 lots	Relative deviation 68.5% Absolute diff. 0.564 lots	4.1m	0m
B head	1,250	Pool B	0.353 lots	0.304 lots	Relative deviation 15.9% Absolute diff. 0.048 lots	5.1m	0m
Top	19,400	Pool B	2.128 lots	4.720 lots	Relative deviation 54.9% Absolute diff. 2.593 lots	79.1m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.