HIPINE

02583

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

56%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

2.6%

Official one-lot hit rate?

1.0%

Public offer lots

10,600 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.026 lots	0.010 lots	Relative deviation 158.9% Absolute diff. 0.016 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	0.282 lots	0.184 lots	Relative deviation 52.9% Absolute diff. 0.097 lots	3m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	0.501 lots	0.800 lots	Relative deviation 37.3% Absolute diff. 0.299 lots	5.9m	0m
Top	5,300	Pool B	0.954 lots	1.674 lots	Relative deviation 43.0% Absolute diff. 0.721 lots	15.7m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.