BENQ HOLDING

02581

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Flat

Joint probability

62%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

32.0%

Official one-lot hit rate?

50.0%

Public offer lots

13,400 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.320 lots	0.500 lots	Relative deviation 36.0% Absolute diff. 0.180 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	16.522 lots	218.000 lots	Relative deviation 92.4% Absolute diff. 201.478 lots	4.7m	0.1m
B head	1,200	Pool B	121.530 lots	-	-	5.6m	0.6m
Top	6,700	Pool B	670.079 lots	1,446.000 lots	Relative deviation 53.7% Absolute diff. 775.921 lots	31.3m	3.1m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.