AUX ELECTRIC

02580

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Flat

Joint probability

60%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

18.5%

Official one-lot hit rate?

10.0%

Public offer lots

416,913 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.185 lots	0.100 lots	Relative deviation 84.9% Absolute diff. 0.085 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	5.139 lots	15.933 lots	Relative deviation 67.7% Absolute diff. 10.794 lots	3.5m	0m
B head	1,500	Pool B	9.641 lots	16.500 lots	Relative deviation 41.6% Absolute diff. 6.859 lots	5.2m	0m
Top	25,895	Pool B	165.155 lots	246.000 lots	Relative deviation 32.9% Absolute diff. 80.845 lots	90.2m	0.6m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.